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Estefano Gomez

Articles by Estefano Gomez

Iran missile strike on US Navy escalates tensions, potential for US response

Crypto May 6, 2026

## Market Snapshot The “US Declaration of War on Iran” market is currently priced at 8.5% for a YES outcome, up from 8% 24 hours ago. The “US Military Action in 2026” market is affected by the...

US-Iran tensions drive rupee to record low, impact oil and Bitcoin markets

Crypto May 6, 2026

## Market Snapshot The Bitcoin price market for May 7 is currently priced at 99.8% YES, slightly down from 100% 24 hours ago. Meanwhile, the WTI Crude Oil market for May 2026 is currently gathering �...

Maersk ship transits Strait of Hormuz under US military escort amid tensions

Crypto May 6, 2026

## Market Snapshot Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market is currently priced at 25.5% YES, reflecting a decrease from 34% just 24 hours ago. The Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalization market�...

Cargo ship attacked near Hormuz, escalating US-Iran tensions

Crypto May 6, 2026

## Market Snapshot Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalization: Market currently reflects reduced odds for normalization by the end of June. Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement: Odds have decreased to ...

Thailand approves emergency borrowing amid US-Israel-Iran conflict

Crypto May 6, 2026

## Market Snapshot WTI Crude Oil Prices in May 2026 market is currently active with a focus on potential price increases amidst geopolitical tensions. Sub-markets are considering whether WTI could r�...

US troop withdrawal from Germany signals Iran de-escalation shift

Crypto May 6, 2026

## Market Snapshot Markets related to a potential US invasion of Iran show a decreased likelihood following the announcement of US troop withdrawals from Germany. The current pricing in these market�...

Australia raises interest rates amid global easing trend

Crypto May 6, 2026

## Market Snapshot The market for the Bank of Brazil increasing the Selic rate after its April 2026 meeting is currently priced at 100% YES. Similarly, ECB interest rates for a 50+ bps decrease in�...

Mexico deploys top security officials to Sinaloa amid cartel violence escalation

Crypto May 6, 2026

## Market Snapshot U.S. Anti-Cartel Operation Timeline market reflects a 99.9% YES probability for an operation occurring by April 30, 2026. This is an increase from 14% seven days ago, amid escalat�...

Hezbollah rejects talks as tensions rise, impacting Israeli withdrawal odds

Crypto May 6, 2026

## Market Snapshot In the “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026” market, the current YES pricing stands at 8%, down from 10% a day ago. The “May 31, 2026” sub-market shows a 3% YES p...

Bitcoin open interest hits $60.9B amid geopolitical tensions

Crypto May 6, 2026

## Market Snapshot Bitcoin price target markets show increased activity, with significant interest surrounding the $80,000 level for April. Current YES pricing suggests robust confidence in reaching�...