Morgan Stanley is embedding cryptocurrency operations throughout the firm and has launched the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust. Bitcoin above $68,000 on April 16 sits at 99.9% YES. The Bitcoin Trust �...
Iranian military advisor Mohsen Rezaei’s remarks threatening to sink US warships have pushed odds lower on the uranium transfer market. US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 is at 22.5% ...
Over $7.4 billion in long positions face liquidation if Bitcoin dips to close the $67,180 CME gap. Bitcoin above $68,000 on April 16 is at 99.9% YES. Market reaction The liquidation risk is weigh�...
Iran wants Lebanon included in any ceasefire agreement with the US. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 22 sit at 24.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago. This development touches two markets: US x�...
Trump claims Iran has “totally agreed” to abandon its nuclear ambitions, pushing odds for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April to 43% YES, up from 28% a week ago. Traders have...
Eric Swalwell has resigned from Congress following sexual assault allegations, and the Polymarket contract predicting his departure by May 31 now sits at 100% YES. Market reaction The market had �...
Charles Schwab will offer direct Bitcoin trading to its 38.9 million brokerage accounts. The Polymarket contract on Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April sits at ? YES. Market reaction The market r�...
Bitcoin funding rates are at historically low levels, suggesting a market bottom as heavy short positioning raises the risk of a short squeeze. The likelihood of Bitcoin staying above $60,000 in Apri�...
The Pentagon is adapting tactics used against Caribbean drug traffickers to target Iran’s fast-attack fleet. Kharg Island control by April 30 sits at 2.9% YES, down from 4% yesterday. The April 3...
Trump’s ambiguous comments on US-Iran talks have rattled Bitcoin markets, with the probability of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April priced at 100% YES. Traders are reacting to Trump’s “prob...