Iran refused to meet US negotiators Witkoff and Kushner in Pakistan. The odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 sit at 9.5% YES, down from 61% a week ago. The permanent peace deal by A�...
Bloomberg’s podcast named John Ternus as the next CEO of Apple, with Tim Cook stepping down on September 1, 2026, to become executive chairman. The Next CEO of Apple market is expected to reprice sh...
A quantum computer broke a 15-bit elliptic curve key in a Bitcoin-related test. The demonstration doesn’t immediately threaten Bitcoin’s 256-bit security but raises questions about future vulnerab...
Iran’s Foreign Ministry said no meeting with the US is planned. The April 24 US-Iran diplomatic meeting market dropped to 0% YES, down from 1% a day ago. The denial moved other dates too. The Apr...
Donald Trump criticized the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling, and his potential visit to China by May 31 dropped to 73.5% YES, down from 76% yesterday. The Supreme Court invalidated tariffs imposed ...
The Trump administration has ended its investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, removing a key obstacle for Kevin Warsh’s confirmation. Warsh’s confirmation by May 15 now sits at 82...
Aave DAO is considering a 25,000 ETH contribution to help restore rsETH backing after the Kelp bridge incident, with DeFi Uniteds recovery stack now appearing to fill the shortfall. Aave DAO service �...
Global AI investment is projected to hit $5.2 trillion by 2030, concentrated in data centers. The best Chinese AI company by April 2026 market has moved in response, with odds for Alibaba increasing �...
Iran’s Foreign Minister and US representatives are converging in Islamabad, with Pakistan acting as mediator. The market for a Trump-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30 sits at 2% YES. Market rea...
Netanyahu revealed he underwent radiation therapy for early-stage prostate cancer. The market on Netanyahu out by June 30 sits at 5.5% YES. Netanyahu concealed the treatment while Israel was engag�...