Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz is open, with oil tankers back in action. The probability of Trump lifting the US blockade by May 31 sits at 90% YES. The Strait’s reopening has pushed up...
OpenAI has lost two executives, with COO Brad Lightcap shifting to special projects and Fidji Simo taking medical leave. The market for GPT-5.5 release by June 30, 2026, sits at 96.9% YES, slightly�...
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called Canada “sucks” and threatened to end the trade deal, while the Polymarket contract on whether the S&P 500 opens up or down on April 15 sits at 100.0...
Anthropic’s launch of Claude Design, powered by Claude Opus 4.7, has moved design software markets on Polymarket. The Claude 4.7 release by April 30 market sits at 100% YES , confirming the release...
Iran’s Foreign Ministry declared that its 60% enriched uranium will not be exported, pushing the odds of the U.S. obtaining Iranian uranium by May 31 down to 26.5% YES from 20% yesterday. The US ...
Ukraine’s drone campaign has reportedly damaged Russian oil facilities and prompted a Russian warning to Europe, pushing the probability of crude oil reaching $90 by June 30 to 75% YES. Market re...
Trump announced Iran’s agreement to permit US personnel to collect leftover uranium. The market for “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30” now sits at 44.3% YES, up from 35% ju...
Iran denied Trump’s suggestion of a uranium handover to secure peace. The market for Iran surrendering its stockpile by April 30 is at 45% YES, up from 25% yesterday but likely to face pressure. ...
Stocks reached new highs with Nasdaq up double digits in April. The S&P 500 contract for April 15 sits at 100% YES, up from 85% just 24 hours ago. The April 15 S&P 500 market now fully pri�...
BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has absorbed over 9,631 BTC in five days during US-Israeli airstrikes and Iranian responses. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by March 31, 202...