Iranian officials have been evacuated from Pakistan under military escort, according to two Pakistani government sources. The “Iran coup attempt by June 30” market currently sits at 12.5% YES. ...
John Bolton’s public skepticism about US-Iran peace talks has pushed the odds of a permanent peace deal by April 30 down to 5.5% YES, a drop from 10% just 24 hours ago. The diplomatic meetings wi...
The Senate Banking Committee advanced Kevin Warsh’s nomination to lead the Federal Reserve after U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro closed a criminal investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. War...
The EU announced its 20th sanctions package against Russia, targeting energy and financial sectors. The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026 market now trades at 5.2% YES, up from 4% yesterday.�...
Iran’s delegation has left Islamabad after all-day talks, presenting a list of demands to Pakistani mediators. The odds for a US-Iran ceasefire extension sit at 45% YES, up from 30% a week ago. T...
U.S. oil exports are increasing during the ongoing U.S.-Israel war with Iran, shifting global supply patterns. The market for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April sits at 0% YES, reflecting expected p�...
Sirens sounded in Israel’s Western Galilee after a drone infiltration was detected, the latest in ongoing hostilities with Hezbollah. The market for an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 sits at ...
Ethereum’s SuperTrend indicator has signaled buy for the first time since May last year, while Ethereum price predictions for April 20-26 sit at 0% YES. The SuperTrend flip suggests the end of a lo...
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi’s talks with Pakistani officials ended without progress. The probability of a US-Iran meeting by April 26 dropped to 10% YES. Market reaction Odds for a diplom...
OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 Pro is now available on Venice, pushing “GPT-5.5 released by April 30” to 100% YES. The April 23 market also hit 100% YES, up from 93% just a day ago. Odds had climbed stea...