Trump announced the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open,” with Iran promising it will “never close” again. The odds for the US lifting its blockade by May 31 sit at 90% YES. Market reactio...
The IMF has downgraded its global growth forecast due to the Iran war and potential oil price spikes, raising US recession odds for 2026. The probability of a US recession by year’s end sits at 0% ...
Trump announced that US-Iran talks will continue over the weekend, saying differences are minimal. A permanent peace deal by April 22 sits at 28.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago. The negotiations ha�...
Iranian lawmaker Ebrahim Azizi announced a new maritime system for the Strait of Hormuz. The market on UK warships transiting the strait by April 30 dropped to 9.5% YES, down from 12% a week ago. �...
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun called in a televised address to transform the ceasefire with Israel into permanent agreements. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market is now at 94% YES,�...
XRP can now be used on Solana, with $1.2 million worth of wrapped XRP tokens minted. The market for XRP exceeding $1.80 by April 19 sits at 0.3% YES. The news hasn’t moved market odds. Current se...
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced over a dozen countries’ readiness to join a defensive mission in the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Iran permanent peace deal market is at 14.5% YES, up from 12% a...
Representatives Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales have resigned from Congress amid criticism of insufficient protections against sexual misconduct, with the Tony Gonzales out by May 31 market at 100% �...
Rumen Radev is leading polls for Bulgaria’s April 19 parliamentary election, with the Polymarket contract for him becoming the next Prime Minister at 90.8% YES, up from 74% a week ago. Radev, a f...
Trump declared the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz ends when an agreement is signed. The market for a blockade lift by May 31 is at 90% YES. Market reaction Trump’s conditional statement has...