Bitcoin miners offloaded a record 32,000 BTC in the first quarter of 2026, surpassing their entire sell-off for 2025, as hashprice hovers around $33/PH/s. The likelihood of Bitcoin reaching an all-ti�...
Residents are returning to southern Lebanon amid celebrations following a 10-day ceasefire with Israel. The ceasefire, which started at midnight, has pushed the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April �...
The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran has intensified, and Polymarket contracts tracking Iran’s political future are moving in response. The “Iran Leadership Status” market predicts a le...
Israeli public sentiment is souring amid a US-Iran ceasefire, with despair rising and trust in leadership falling. The Iran military action by April 30 market sits at 100% YES. Market reaction Th�...
The US is delaying weapons deliveries to some European countries to prioritize its military needs in the Iran theater. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by the end of May is at 34% YES. �...
OpenAI has agreed to a $20 billion deal for Cerebras chips that includes an equity stake in the company, pushing USD.AI FDV predictions to 15% YES, a 15% increase from previous expectations. Marke�...
Macron and Starmer have rallied allies to consider a multinational mission for securing the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of the UK sending warships by April 30, 2026, sit at 5.5% YES, down from 12% a�...
Ukrainian Prime Minister’s Washington visit spurred reconstruction talks, pushing the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31 market to 5.9% YES, up from 5% a week ago. Market reaction The ceasefire ...
President Pezeshkian has commended Pakistan’s mediation efforts in the US-Iran conflict. The market for a ceasefire breach announcement by April 21 is at 9.0% YES, down from 33% a week ago. Pezes...
Roberto Sánchez has accused Rafael López Aliaga of avoiding legal scrutiny for inflammatory remarks. López Aliaga’s chances of winning the 2026 Peruvian presidential election sit at 14.5% YES, ...