The US has sent emergency fuel shipments to Australia as the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues disrupting global oil supply. Odds for US escorts through Hormuz by April 30 sit at 5.5% YES, down f�...
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is contemplating a general election in the third quarter, conditional on his government avoiding further subsidy cuts. The US has simultaneously increased press�...
Rising energy costs from the Iran conflict are adding pressure to Germany’s economic outlook, but the market for a 50+ bps ECB rate decrease at its April 2026 meeting sits at 0% YES, unchanged. D...
Yara International reported stronger-than-expected Q1 earnings as the Iran war keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to commercial traffic. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market p�...
A massive ETHFI token unlock threatening 95.7% dilution has surfaced, drawing attention to Ethereum price markets. The market for Ethereum to hit $10,000 by December 31, 2026, sits at 4.2% YES, unc�...
Morgan Stanley has unveiled a Stablecoin Reserves Portfolio, a government money market fund targeting stablecoin issuers, timed to meet anticipated GENIUS Act reserve requirements. USDC depeg by Dece�...
Iran plans to include the US-Israel war in school textbooks, and the odds for an Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 have dropped to 2% YES, down from 5% yesterday, on the Israel-Iran peac�...
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon continue even after a US-brokered ceasefire extension. The Polymarket odds for Trump endorsing an Israeli ceasefire by April 30 sit at 100% YES, a price that �...
The firing of Navy Secretary John Phelan, announced through a Pentagon social media post, has drawn attention to the market for the next Trump Cabinet departure. The likelihood of a Cabinet exit befo�...
Israeli Channel 12 reports that the defense minister is shifting strategy toward economic disruption of Iran. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market is at 8.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday and 6% a�...