Markets are pricing a 100% probability that the Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.50%-3.75% at the upcoming FOMC meeting, a shift from earlier expectations of rate cuts before the U.S.-Iran conflict e�...
Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesman Majed Al Ansari said the Strait of Hormuz should not be used as a pressure card, signaling de-escalation in the Iran-US crisis. The odds for crude oil hitting all-...
Viktor Orban’s offer to resign as Fidesz party president after the Hungarian election loss has been turned down by the party leadership, and odds for him being the next leader out before 2027 are ex...
A recording reveals Qatar offered to “look after” ICC prosecutor Karim Khan if he pursued charges against Netanyahu. The Netanyahu out by June 30 market prices this at 5.5% YES. Market reaction...
Mohammad Javad Zarif suggests Iran declare victory and offer nuclear curbs for sanctions relief. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 sits at 1.2% YES, down from 10% yesterday. Market reac�...
The USS Rafael Peralta intercepted tanker M/T Stream attempting to reach Iranian ports, while the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June 30 market sits at 0% YES. Market reaction The �...
Odds for a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 have crashed to 1.1% YES on Polymarket, down from 7% yesterday and 68% a week ago, as negotiations appear to have broken down with six days left. Market�...
Trump’s national security team is considering an Iranian proposal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. A permanent US-Iran peace deal by April 30 is at 2% YES. The review signals a pos...
Japan’s 10-year JGB yield climbed 1.0 basis point to 2.480%, while the Polymarket contract for the Bank of Japan decreasing interest rates after the April 2026 meeting holds at 0.1% YES, unchanged...
Trump’s dissatisfaction with Iran’s proposal has reduced the chances of an imminent diplomatic meeting. The odds for no US-Iran meeting by June 30, 2026, now sit at 16.2% YES, up from 9% just a ...