A Chinese oil tanker, Rich Starry, was forced to retreat from the Strait of Hormuz due to a US blockade. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 sits at 10% YES, up from 8% a day a�...
The US has initiated a multi-layered naval blockade on Iranian ports using F-35s, destroyers, and satellite surveillance, according to Al Arabiya. The probability of the US lifting the blockade by Ma�...
The International Monetary Fund has warned of a potential global recession due to high oil prices, exacerbated by the ongoing Iran conflict. The ECB 50 bps rate cut market sits at 0.1% YES, while t�...
Pakistan is pushing for new US-Iran peace negotiations. The ceasefire-by-April-21 market is at 10.5% YES, unchanged despite the diplomatic initiative. The April 22 peace deal market sits at 20.5% �...
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that Trump tariffs might be reinstated by July following a Supreme Court setback, pushing the odds of Trump visiting China by May 31 to 81.5% YES on Polym�...
Peru’s JEE will review over 4,000 observed tally sheets, potentially altering the runoff outcome. On Polymarket, Rafael López Aliaga’s odds of winning the presidency sit at 16.5% YES, with the ...
Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari has introduced Articles of Impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, citing violations of his oath and war crimes in the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. The od�...
Bitcoin price above $60,000 by April 19 sits at 99.6% YES on Polymarket, as a two-week ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict and falling oil prices keep risk appetite high. Market reaction Liquidity �...
The US warning about China’s military activities has coincided with a decline in the likelihood of Trump visiting China. Odds for Trump visiting China by May 31 are at 81.5% YES, down from 84% yes...
The Senate voted 40-59 against blocking arms sales to Israel while Trump signaled a diplomatic opening with Iran. The market on Trump agreeing to Iranian demands in April is at 36.5% YES, up from 3�...