An Iranian state news outlet questioned Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s tweet about the Strait of Hormuz reopening. Trump’s blockade announcement by May 31 is at 91.5% YES. Araghchi’s tweet...
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun called for “permanent agreements” following the Israel truce, and the odds of an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30 are at 100% YES on Polymarket. Mark...
Three Iranian oil tankers under US sanctions have left the Gulf carrying five million barrels of crude through the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April �...
The European Central Bank continues to signal restraint on rate cuts during the Middle East conflict, and the Polymarket contract for a 50+ basis point decrease at the April 2026 meeting sits at 0.3%�...
IEA chief Fatih Birol says markets are underestimating the Strait of Hormuz closure’s impact. Crude oil hitting $90 by June 30 is at 75% YES. Birol’s warning comes as Iran’s blockade of the S...
ECB’s Madis Müller said a rate move in April can’t be ruled out. The market for a 50+ bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting sits at 0.3% YES, unchanged from a week ago. Müller’s comments a...
The Gulf War’s aftermath has produced a $58 billion repair bill and a global equipment shortfall, as the US-Iran conflict enters its seventh week following an April 8 ceasefire. The market on whethe...
Trump has proposed ceasefire talks to end the Iran war, including a 20-year nuclear moratorium. The odds of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 sit at 41.0% YES, up from 35% a day a�...
Lebanese civilians are cautiously returning home as the ceasefire with Israel holds. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 94% YES, up from 45% a week ago. Market reaction T�...
A proposal to freeze Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin has surfaced without shaking market confidence. Bitcoin price above $62,000 on April 17 sits at 99.9% YES. Market reaction The proposal, led by Ja...